A UK-led team of researchers has identified 15 issues that could affect the diversity of life on Earth in 2013. They include using synthetic DNA to genetically modify organisms, soaring demand for coconut water, and competition for land to grow plants for fish farming.

Other topics the researchers highlight include dam-building in the Andean Amazon, using coral nurseries to restore reefs, and the commercial use of short portions of antimicrobial proteins.

The European Centre helped to fund the study and one of its leading academics, Professor Michael Depledge, is a co-author of the report.

The emerging issues are the result of an attempt to pinpoint threats, opportunities and developments that aren’t widely recognised, but which need further research in case they turn into big problems for biodiversity.

The thinking behind the exercise is to identify potential concerns, so we can respond more effectively if the researchers’ projections prove accurate.
“In this paper we’ve identified both new threats and opportunities presented by a number of emerging issues. It is perhaps telling however, that most of the effects we have on the natural environment continue to give rise to negative consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services” says Professor Michael Depledge.

So-called horizon scanning is used by private and public organisations to inform processes related to policy, risk assessment, strategic planning, and innovation.

“This kind of horizon scanning exercise can be useful to avoid situations where we’re ill-prepared to deal with the consequences. One example is biofuels. They were promised to be a green alternative to fossil fuels, but no-one anticipated that pristine rainforest would be cleared for them” explains Professor Bill Sutherland from the University of Cambridge who led this study.

In this study, published in Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 19 experts were invited to submit up to five little-known issues they thought could affect biodiversity in the near future. The group came up with 72, which – after some debating – they whittled down to 15.

Some topics like 3D printing or the rapid growth of concentrated solar power, while in many ways beneficial to the environment, could also have their downsides. The point is that right now, nobody knows how or even if these technologies will affect biodiversity.

“We hope horizon scanning will help us identify emerging threats to biodiversity before rather than after they’ve had a major impact” says Professor Ken Norris from the University of Reading, NERC’s biodiversity theme leader, who co-authored the study.

The study was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, the European Centre for Environment and Human Health and the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds.

The 15 issues that could affect biodiversity in 2013:

1. Rapid growth of concentrated solar power
2. Widespread development of thorium-fuelled nuclear power
3. Seabed located oil drilling and processing
4. Accelerating water cycle
5. Proliferation of hydropower in the Andean Amazon
6. Species loss as a driver of global environmental change
7. Vegetarian aquaculture feed
8. Rapid rise in global demand for coconut water
9. Detecting aquatic species with environmental DNA
10. Use of coral nurseries for reef restoration
11. Forest conservation and restoration by micro unmanned aerial vehicles
12. The 3D printing revolution
13. A link between biodiversity, allergy and autoimmune disease
14. The commercial use of antimicrobial peptides
15. Synthetic genetics